Conclusion

The next chapter
for venture

2025 marked a turning point.

After two years of retrenchment, venture rebounded in terms of dollars while remaining narrow in terms of number of deals. Capital concentrated around category leaders, especially in AI, while fundraising remained challenging for most companies. The market began to normalize: exit value improved, NAVs stabilized, and liquidity timelines started to come back into focus even as distributions had yet to fully ramp up. The “flight to quality” defined every layer of the market – from which managers raised capital and which companies received it, to which deals delivered liquidity.

The game has changed. The IPO window is opening, but companies are staying private longer, supported by deeper private capital markets and maturing secondary markets. Venture is increasingly an asset class defined by access, selectivity, and non-linear outcomes.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is more
constructive than it has been in years, but the path will
remain uneven. These are three key areas to watch:

Liquidity recovery:: A backlog of IPO-ready generational companies could restart the exit flywheel in earnest. At the same time, secondaries and tenders will play a larger role, particularly for mid- and late-stage companies.
Fundraising and recycling:: Venture fundraising is projected to rebound in 2026 as distributions recover and liquidity improves. Selectivity will persist, favoring experienced managers, focused strategies, and disciplined reserve strategies.
Deployment discipline:: Managers enter 2026 with dry powder and renewed focus on pacing. The central challenge is balancing support for breakout winners with select exposure to new opportunities, particularly in AI infrastructure, enterprise software, biotech, and robotics.