State of the
Venture Capital
Industry
TrueBridge Capital
Introduction
The foundations of the
next venture cycle
Venture in 2025 was dominated by one category: AI. By year’s end, it was clear that AI had evolved from a category with potential into an era-defining platform shift.
Enthusiasm around models, infrastructure, and applied use cases translated into revenue growth, mega-rounds, and concentrated deployment. Total venture funding neared peak levels, but across far fewer deals.
Trillions in capital expenditures flowed into compute, power and data center infrastructure. Investors responded with a deliberate flight to quality, committing more capital to fewer companies and larger checks to market leaders. It was a barbell market, evidenced by strength at the top, activity at the earliest stages, and a quieter middle.
2025 also marked a meaningful step toward normalization. The IPO market reopened selectively, and exit value showed its first sustained improvement in three years.
While liquidity remained uneven, conditions clearly moved in the right direction: NAVs stabilized, exit timelines became more visible, and founders operated from a position of greater control, thoughtfully extending runway while continuing to build.
Importantly, venture capital did not sit on the sidelines. Managers deployed with renewed confidence and adjusted pacing, actively supporting their strongest companies.
Entering 2026, the venture market is more focused, more selective, and increasingly well-positioned to translate improving momentum into liquidity.
“2026 becomes a record year for liquidity. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, and Databricks IPO, with SpaceX and OpenAI ranking among the ten largest offerings ever. The pent-up demand from 4+ years of drought finally breaks. Fear of disruption by fast-growing AI systems drives defensive acquisitions exceeding $25 billion as incumbents buy rather than build.”
Theory Ventures
Fundraising
Capital concentrates
around conviction
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01
Investing
Capital went to
work — unevenly
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02
Valuations
Pricing the next cycle
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03
Exits
Markets saw a
selective reopening
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04
Performance
Venture renewed
its climb
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05
Trend
Outcomes are
becoming non-linear
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06
Trend
AI moves from
experimentation to execution
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07
Conclusion
The next chapter
for venture
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08